20% Chance of Rain

A new weather term – or a new interpretation of a familiar weather term. I didn’t make this up – I think I heard it on NPR’s local affiliate. 20% chance does not mean that the entire area has a 20% chance of getting rainfall. Nope. That would be too normal for the likes of the Land of Enchantment :^] Remind me to explain the ‘approximate-ness’ of Silver City, a wonderful and accurate concept introduced by a friend and long-time resident here. What the weather term means is that 20% of the entire area will probably get rain. Let me say that a different way, in case the subtleties escape. A cloud here and a thunderhead there and a gray mass over there, all separated by brilliant blue clear sky, makes up 20% of the sky that bears rain. If all of that rain that starts up there actually hits the ground – and a good measure does not – then you have 20% of the (ground) area getting rained upon. So a 20% chance of rain! Makes sense, no?

We have been observing this phenomenon known as rain. This is supposed to be monsoon season. But it is, from what we can gather, very dry with much below-normal rains. At least in Silver City. Here’s where the 20% chance comes into play. Several days in the last couple of weeks, we have started the day with beautiful clear skies holding up a few puffy clouds. By late afternoon or early evening, about the time we walk Nutmeg, clouds virtually surround Silver City’s clear blue ceiling. It’s raining down in the desert, or it’s raining up over the Gila. You can see the cloud patches and bands with the rain falling. But not here. We did get a good night’s rain late last week. And yesterday, I think it was, we got up to heavy overcast – a very gray morning. I thought: today’s the day – we’re going to get some good rain today. Umm, no…it rained to the east and it rained to the south, and maybe a little in between, but no rain here. And by mid-afternoon – sunny, bright, warm, blue. There may be 20% rain, but we’re in the 80% that’s dry.

And that means, warm. Well, hot. For here, hot. Only during the day, but flat-sunlight-hot-to-the-touch hot – low to mid 90s. Well, ok, then, not hot by Tucson or Phoenix standards, or El Paso or central Texas hot, but still… I am having to learn to chase the sun around the house, but with a different intent than my whole life’s training which was: Open the window for breeze and the curtains or shade for sun – let the light pour in – hate a dark room – feels like a cave. That does not work here. After more than one argument with my more-desert-savvy husband and the experience of heat radiating off the window glass, I am learning. Chase the sun to lower the shades and close those windows. Open the ones – windows and shades – in the rooms the sun has just abandoned. Get used to caves because it’s only for a couple of hours. And not necessary on an overcast day. But we haven’t turned on the ac yet! Have had to suffer through a few 80° afternoons in the house, but not enough to justify the electricity or the chill in the air the rest of the time. We have ceiling fans in most of the rooms. That’s been all that we have needed during the day. Don’t forget to turn the fans off at night or we wake up over-cool when the outside temp drops below 60°. This isn’t even an efficient house. Wait until we build our ‘green’ house with passive solar and passive cooling.

I’ve gotten a number of notes back about my last discourse on armed men walking the neighborhood prepared to fend off potentially hostile canines. Where I don’t see the usefulness of a nine iron, sand wedge or whatever as a protection against a loose dog, others would consider it a psychological reassurance. One good and loyal friend sent me a story about a lion whisperer (ok, her term) she saw on a documentary. His job? Carry a big stick and make loud noises to impress an aggressive pride of lions – Big-Cat aversion therapy, I guess. Been known to work with bears. The cats were aggressing the tourists at a safari location in an African country. He was charged with changing their behavior. He was apparently so successful that he was able, eventually, to walk up and cut a chunk of meat from the pride’s recent kill without the lions challenging him. Fine if you like wildebeest pot roast complete with toothy tenderizing. Truth in advertising, even for lion whisperers – the dude, his big stick and big mouth were backed up by big guns – just in case aversion therapy failed. I definitely don’t think that’s what these golf-club guys are thinking. But thanks, Ivia – every story deserves a better one back.
We have an fully signed contract now on the piece of land we’re buying. It took a few days to get everyone inked together. Now we’ll apply for the financing and I expect we’re off and planning. Talked with the architect yesterday and he’ll make a site visit to start translating dreams to dirt. Here’s a picture of our official greeter. Ain’t he cute?